- Joined
- Dec 18, 2010
- Posts
- 2,881
So things keep changing. Independent reports from the ground in China are starting to paint a picture of what many have long suspected.
A recent report says URN deliveries to the 3 largest crematoriums in Wuhan were 30,000 higher than previous time period a year ago. Anonymous medical staff have suggested 3,000 healthcare workers died in Wuhan, not 3,000 total.
Another report says the test kits China is selling have a 70% fail rate (failed to detect 70% of positives). Whether poor / rushed design or intentional is another talking point.
Does this change anything? Probably not. It makes the numbers in Italy and Spain more understandable.
The mortality rate of confirmed cases is then closer to 10%. With an estimated 90% of mild and asymptomatic cases untested, it is still likely an actual 1% mortality rate, about 3x seasonal flu rate (across the world).
3x seasonal flu mortality rate combined with asymptomatic spreading and extremely long contagious periods is why the distancing is important.
If left unchecked the estimates are right - 3-5 million in the US would die (10% of the over 65 and immuno-compromised, significantly lower rates of the younger / healthy). There are still some who say even that scenario, 3-5 million dead, is better than tanking the economy, retirements, and watching military dictatorships take over in moderate democracies. I'm personally torn - I can see both arguments.
With that, there are some benefits we're seeing due to "stay at home" orders. I can only speak to my region (MN, WI, IL, SD, ND) and specifically to MN. Fatal car accidents are down almost 50%. DUI's are down over 60%. Property crimes down almost 50%. Violent crime is down negligibly, around 5%.
I suspect the 100K dead and lockdown is going to win out over 3 million dead and do what you do, but in either case, it's going to be an interesting spring and summer.
A recent report says URN deliveries to the 3 largest crematoriums in Wuhan were 30,000 higher than previous time period a year ago. Anonymous medical staff have suggested 3,000 healthcare workers died in Wuhan, not 3,000 total.
Another report says the test kits China is selling have a 70% fail rate (failed to detect 70% of positives). Whether poor / rushed design or intentional is another talking point.
Does this change anything? Probably not. It makes the numbers in Italy and Spain more understandable.
The mortality rate of confirmed cases is then closer to 10%. With an estimated 90% of mild and asymptomatic cases untested, it is still likely an actual 1% mortality rate, about 3x seasonal flu rate (across the world).
3x seasonal flu mortality rate combined with asymptomatic spreading and extremely long contagious periods is why the distancing is important.
If left unchecked the estimates are right - 3-5 million in the US would die (10% of the over 65 and immuno-compromised, significantly lower rates of the younger / healthy). There are still some who say even that scenario, 3-5 million dead, is better than tanking the economy, retirements, and watching military dictatorships take over in moderate democracies. I'm personally torn - I can see both arguments.
With that, there are some benefits we're seeing due to "stay at home" orders. I can only speak to my region (MN, WI, IL, SD, ND) and specifically to MN. Fatal car accidents are down almost 50%. DUI's are down over 60%. Property crimes down almost 50%. Violent crime is down negligibly, around 5%.
I suspect the 100K dead and lockdown is going to win out over 3 million dead and do what you do, but in either case, it's going to be an interesting spring and summer.
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