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Dunno if this deserves its own thread as it's less about policy than strategy, but this year the electoral college is really really interesting as far as possibilities go.
So, here is a link to CNN's electoral map. It's actually a pretty decent tool for parsing possibilities. Using this tool, we can see what scenarios either candidate needs to win and where they can afford to lose.
Tactics:
Obama and McCain are running two very different strategies, McCain's being the riskier of the two.
Obama is betting that he'll win every state that Kerry won, which according to recent polls is a pretty reasonable assumption. The only states Obama needs to defend are Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire, he is ahead or tied in all of these states thus far. After that, his strategy sets in and this is why the Obama camp was such a formidable foe against Clinton.
By competing in every single state, Obama is forcing McCain to defend territory that should by definition be safe...like Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Virginia, South Carolina, and Nevada. Since McCain is using public financing, he has only 85 million to spend from now until election day while Obama can continue to raise money with almost no limits. This has created immense ground operations that have made Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico a sure flip. It has also put Virginia into democratic play for the first time since Johnson!
McCain is on tougher ground, he is tight on funds and must rely heavily on the RNC (luckily the RNC has boatloads of cash). His strategy has changed pretty dramatically several times, but the overarching theme is to get away from the economy and focus on populism and foreign policy.
McCain MUST change the narrative, he cannot get caught talking about his tax policy anymore because his tax cuts are less than those of his Democratic opponent. He can't talk about deregulation anymore because we were just forced to essentially nationalize the world's largest investment bank. Rock. Hard place.
So, prediction is the following:
Obama will win with 277 electoral votes, flipping Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. He'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but lose New Hampshire, MN, Florida, and Ohio.
McCain will grab 261 votes with MN, Ohio, and Florida alongside NH.
What do you guys think? Realistic? Any other scenarios I may be missing where McCain can pull this off?
So, here is a link to CNN's electoral map. It's actually a pretty decent tool for parsing possibilities. Using this tool, we can see what scenarios either candidate needs to win and where they can afford to lose.
Tactics:
Obama and McCain are running two very different strategies, McCain's being the riskier of the two.
Obama is betting that he'll win every state that Kerry won, which according to recent polls is a pretty reasonable assumption. The only states Obama needs to defend are Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, and New Hampshire, he is ahead or tied in all of these states thus far. After that, his strategy sets in and this is why the Obama camp was such a formidable foe against Clinton.
By competing in every single state, Obama is forcing McCain to defend territory that should by definition be safe...like Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Virginia, South Carolina, and Nevada. Since McCain is using public financing, he has only 85 million to spend from now until election day while Obama can continue to raise money with almost no limits. This has created immense ground operations that have made Colorado, Iowa and New Mexico a sure flip. It has also put Virginia into democratic play for the first time since Johnson!
McCain is on tougher ground, he is tight on funds and must rely heavily on the RNC (luckily the RNC has boatloads of cash). His strategy has changed pretty dramatically several times, but the overarching theme is to get away from the economy and focus on populism and foreign policy.
McCain MUST change the narrative, he cannot get caught talking about his tax policy anymore because his tax cuts are less than those of his Democratic opponent. He can't talk about deregulation anymore because we were just forced to essentially nationalize the world's largest investment bank. Rock. Hard place.
So, prediction is the following:
Obama will win with 277 electoral votes, flipping Iowa, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, and Virginia. He'll win Wisconsin and Michigan, but lose New Hampshire, MN, Florida, and Ohio.
McCain will grab 261 votes with MN, Ohio, and Florida alongside NH.
What do you guys think? Realistic? Any other scenarios I may be missing where McCain can pull this off?
