MMORPG genre is not "oversaturated", if anything, it's still rare in the console market, and there is nothing EXACTLY like FFXIV ARR on PC. And it's totally different world and the Final Fantasy flavor is one of a kind. the MMORPG shovelware out there really doesn't count since they are just either cheap browser games or some kind of niche FTP brand that don't even have the quality and ambition and financial support of mmorpgs like FFXIV ARR.
and not all of those Guild Wars 2 wannabe mmos fit every mmorpg fan's interests. And FFXI Online can't hold every single fan's interest forever.
If anything the SHOOTER market is oversaturated, but that isn't stopping the better ones from selling big.
Also there are at least 2 flavors of MMORPGs, free to play MMORPGs, and subscription based MMORPGS.
Fee based mmorpgs that fail turn to become FTP mmorpgs, but that doesn't mean FFXIV ARR has to follow that model to be successful.
FF XIV stands as the most colossal failure in the history of video games, IMO. Worse than Duke Nukem Forever. Yoichi Wada, president of S-E, actually admitted that the game's poor quality tarnished the brand name.
That's a huge exaggeration. DNF took longer to make AND it ended up flopping. FFXIV 1.0 flopped, but that was partially due to Tanaka's outdated principles and SE's impatience back then. but FFXIV ARR is turn things around a full 180 in a much better direction that at least has a chance to succeed on PC and PS3.
But having said all that, the game got great in February 2K12. And subscriptions actually went up when they went back to a pay model. And there are a lot of people that only own PS3s that will give the game a try.
That is true. DCUO is no FFXI. And although FFXIV ARR is a new combination between FFXI and WoW, it could earn a lot of fans.
I think its myopic to judge people for being realistic about its chances. Saner's contention that 'people shouldn't judge the new game by the old' is just blind optimism. People are going to be very scrutinizing on this game.
There's something called blind negative mindset. Where would the industry be without optimism?
I imply that FFXIV ARR has a good chance to redeem the title, much better than all the FFXIII's combined.
And even if it succeeds and is everything people hope for, MMOs are just operating under a different business model than they were when S-E decided to even make FF XIV.
So what? FFXIV doesn't need to sell out to the cheap penny pincher consumer market to succeed.
FTP is the death/stagnation of mmorpgs.
That's why DCUO will always be a mediocre mmorpg because the developers ambition is too small and closed minded.
That's why FFXIV ARR has a better chance of lasting longer than Guild Wars 2 (GW2 is just a cheap cash in and doesn't even provide all
the fundamentals of an immersive mmorpgs. People only really play it because its free to play mmorpg for dummies. )
My prediction: it will have a loyal subscriber base, just like XI did. It won't dethrone WoW because nothing can dethrone WoW but the player base will be generally awesome to play with, just like XI was.
Well at least that is a decent perspective.
Also someone that said Square Enix is competing with themselves because of Dragon Quest X. THEY ARE NOT COMPETING WITH THEMSELVES.
1. Dragon Quest X is exclusive to Wii consoles. PC and PS3 exclusive gamers won't care for it. DQX is mmorpg lite. It's a simple and old school grind heavy mmorpg. It's an mmorpg for a completely different audience and platform market.
2. FFXIV ARR is being developed for PC and PS3. Completely different market. On PS3, the only competition is DCUO (which is just a FTP corpse that's already outdated in every category compared to even decade old mmorpgs like FFXI. )
there is competition on PC, but FFXIV ARR can definitely win interest from even FFXI, WoW and GW2 veterans that understand the values of subscription fee model and are sick of older mmorpgs. There are many people looking for the next big mmorpg and willing to pay to play it.