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- May 9, 2003
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Here she is, the first tripping stone on the long arduous journey of an election year. The Iowa caucuses are a bizarre tradition that have so many factors it is frankly impossible to tell who is gonna win it beforehand, but let's give it our best and see who's right tomorrow.
The caucus is totally different than any other political event, people show up at highschool and church auditoriums and basically yell at each other until someone is the clear winner. It's scary, intimidating, and I can only imagine how fun it is.
So first, there are a few factors to consider for each party.
Democrats:
This year, the energy is with the Democrats, people are expecting roughly three times more turnout than the GOP. The Des Moines Register had a poll saying Obama managed to nab 35% of the electorate, including a plurality of women, in the caucus votes. Let this not be understated that if this is true this is a HUGE development for the Barry camp considering Clinton's primary fallback has been women, who make up more than 60% of the caucus vote.
Since 1996, the participation in the caucus among Dems has doubled each election cycle, if this happens again Obama will win in a landslide of at least 10%, if not, Edwards and Clinton are neck and neck with Barry.
The Obama, Clinton, and Edwards camps are all providing caravans, babysitters, handicapped and elderly assistance, and plenty of brown nosing.
Also, Kucinich has asked his supporters to vote for Obama should he not be in the running for a caucus win, a not-so-subtle endorsement from a very subtle woodland elf. Kucinich supporters are similar to Ron Paul supporters in their allegiance and tenacity, though they aren't as hygienic and usually aren't members of a militia.
Republicans:
The GOP is expecting low turnout, but Huckabee is expected to cruise through if the turnout is higher than expected. Should Huckabee win, Romney will take a huge hit since he's spent tens of millions compared with Huckabee's...well...1 million.
Also, Thompson and McCain are fighting for third place. McCain doesn't need this to win in NH, but Thompson needs this badly since he is poised to be destroyed in NH...he would have to use his 3rd place underdog momentum to manufacture a win in SC or completely give up. I don't think he'll do it.
Also, I think Giuliani made a serious mistake in not fighting for 3rd in Iowa, he's ceded it to Huck and Mittens, he's ceded NH to McCain and Mittens, and is hoping to make his stand in Florida on the fucking 29th and then use that momentum to win all the primaries on tsunami Tuesday. Good luck paisan.
Finally, there's Ron "The Civil War was unnecessary" Paul, whose supporters will be out in force. The GOP caucus has even weirder rules with some precincts having a 15% approval cap to even be considered...Paul supporters, unlike Kucinich, will not throw their votes to Mittens or Huck, they will leave.
So, here are my unsolicited predictions with number one being the winner:
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson
GOP:
1. Romney (by a pinch)
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul
What do you guys think? Am I way off base?
The caucus is totally different than any other political event, people show up at highschool and church auditoriums and basically yell at each other until someone is the clear winner. It's scary, intimidating, and I can only imagine how fun it is.
So first, there are a few factors to consider for each party.
Democrats:
This year, the energy is with the Democrats, people are expecting roughly three times more turnout than the GOP. The Des Moines Register had a poll saying Obama managed to nab 35% of the electorate, including a plurality of women, in the caucus votes. Let this not be understated that if this is true this is a HUGE development for the Barry camp considering Clinton's primary fallback has been women, who make up more than 60% of the caucus vote.
Since 1996, the participation in the caucus among Dems has doubled each election cycle, if this happens again Obama will win in a landslide of at least 10%, if not, Edwards and Clinton are neck and neck with Barry.
The Obama, Clinton, and Edwards camps are all providing caravans, babysitters, handicapped and elderly assistance, and plenty of brown nosing.
Also, Kucinich has asked his supporters to vote for Obama should he not be in the running for a caucus win, a not-so-subtle endorsement from a very subtle woodland elf. Kucinich supporters are similar to Ron Paul supporters in their allegiance and tenacity, though they aren't as hygienic and usually aren't members of a militia.
Republicans:
The GOP is expecting low turnout, but Huckabee is expected to cruise through if the turnout is higher than expected. Should Huckabee win, Romney will take a huge hit since he's spent tens of millions compared with Huckabee's...well...1 million.
Also, Thompson and McCain are fighting for third place. McCain doesn't need this to win in NH, but Thompson needs this badly since he is poised to be destroyed in NH...he would have to use his 3rd place underdog momentum to manufacture a win in SC or completely give up. I don't think he'll do it.
Also, I think Giuliani made a serious mistake in not fighting for 3rd in Iowa, he's ceded it to Huck and Mittens, he's ceded NH to McCain and Mittens, and is hoping to make his stand in Florida on the fucking 29th and then use that momentum to win all the primaries on tsunami Tuesday. Good luck paisan.
Finally, there's Ron "The Civil War was unnecessary" Paul, whose supporters will be out in force. The GOP caucus has even weirder rules with some precincts having a 15% approval cap to even be considered...Paul supporters, unlike Kucinich, will not throw their votes to Mittens or Huck, they will leave.
So, here are my unsolicited predictions with number one being the winner:
Dems:
1. Obama
2. Clinton
3. Edwards
4. Biden
5. Richardson
GOP:
1. Romney (by a pinch)
2. Huckabee
3. Thompson
4. McCain
5. Paul
What do you guys think? Am I way off base?
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