Umm... that amount is BEFORE paypal takes their cut in the conversion, and since it's both ways (purchase + refund) you're paying the cut twice.
If you're that worried about it, I'd say this isn't the right thing for you. It's hard to say that and not have it sound horrible, but really, if you're worried about the nickel and diming of exchange rates and Paypal fees for an item like this (if the deal falls through) then you probably should just wait for a copy to show up from a US seller later on.
Edit: Also, I deal a lot in buying things overseas. I have an AMEX card for that, and I use it through Paypal. I do not get dinged on the cost of exchange, either way, if something were to go wrong. I've also had money refunded to me via Paypal. Excellentcom just did that last week in the amount of $30 from an order I did through Paypal with my AMEX card. It showed up as a $30 credit on my AMEX the next day. So.... Not really sure what you mean by those fees anyway.