The Middle East Uprisings: video, links, and more

NeoTheranthrope

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['Sire, the Egyptians are revolting.' Groucho: 'They certainly are.']

Starting with the (first round of) Wikileaks U.S. diplomatic cable leaks, which led to the the ousting of Ben Ali's regime in Tunisia, which is "infecting" nearby Egypt which is now in full-revolt.

There's so much going on it's hard to keep up:
  • Massive protests were planned today, in response the Egyptian President ordered the THE ENTIRE INTERNET, and cell phone network for the country SHUT DOWN. (let that sink in a minute...)
  • Police have been shooting (with both rubber and live rounds) and beating protesters.
  • The army has been called in, but that seems to have backfired, because the mostly conscript force has been joining (or sympathetic to) the protesters, and in some cases, have been rumored to be fighting the against police and secret police.
  • Protesters have torched the headquarters of the ruling Democratic National Party, along with police stations and security (secret police) headquarters buildings.
  • The President has sacked parliament (but has no plans to step down himself).

...and that's just in the last 12 hours.

Watch history unfold live: via Aljazeera

[highlight]Edit: Scorecard for those following at home, but don't want to accidentally the whole thread:[/highlight]

In the beginning, came Wikileaks...
  • Wikileaks, a state-less, de-centralized whistleblower/terrorist organization ("In a time of universal deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act." -George Orwell.) dedicated to ending unnecessary state secrecy by legal means (and not so legal means), received a large cache of U.S. State Department Diplomatic cables.
  • The total cash of 251,287 cables are "released" but they aren't all "public." There is the "insurance" .zip archive file with all the 251,287 cables password-protected and encrypted (which can be unlocked with a single tweet), however the public (the ones you can actually read) cables have been carefully vetted and redacted by several large news organizations, have been released as small batches every few weeks.
  • The first batch, and each subsequent batch, revealed what U.S. diplomats at home and abroad really think about their diplomatic counterparts, as opposed to... the U.S. State Department's carefully sanitized public PR-line on foreign powers and personalities.
  • The individual cables revealed anything from inane gossip, all the way to overt illegal shenanigans, by both foreign actors, and the U.S.'s own personnel, contractors, and corporations abroad.
  • What this meant for the peoples' of the Middle East and North Africa was here is: OFFICIAL confirmation of things previously rumored about their own respective governments and heads-of-state.
  • In each respective autocratic regimes, there is always an undercurrent of rebellion, but because the differences between disparate groups, that current has been erratic, unfocused, and as a result; easily crushed by each respective states' security apparatus. However the wikileaks created way for organizers on the ground to focus and channel this undercurrent into a massive unidirectional torrent.
  • The fuel was always there, but cablegate was the spark that ignited the dry tinder into a super-massive firestorm.



Tunisia.
  • A Mostly-Arab, Mostly-Muslim, fairly-small, Mediterranean, Northern-African country.
  • Considered progressive compared to other countries in the region technologically and politically. It's people are literate and fairly tech-savvy, which is why why protesters were able to mobilize so quickly after the first batch of cablegate leaks dropped.
  • (former) leader: Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, hightailed it just a few days into the protests, and currently believed to be living in exile in the U.A.E.
  • Media Coverage: fair
  • Status: [highlight]toppled![/highlight] An interim government is being formed over the existing bureaucracy.

Egypt
  • A Mostly-Arab, Mostly-Muslim, (with a fairly-large Christian minority), large, Mediterranean, Northern-African country.
  • Like Tunisia, Egypt is comparatively progressive technologically, and has a fairly literate population, but has a major problem with youth unemployment. It is the region's economic and political powerhouse, important U.S. ally, as well as, neighbor and (reluctant) ally of Israel. First country to attempt complete disconnection from the Internet.
  • Special note: The Egyptian Army, made up of mostly conscripts, is afforded a great deal of respect and admiration by the Egyptian people and should be considered a separate entity from the governmental political apparatus.
  • (former) leader: Hosni Mubarak, former Air Force Officer and hero of the 1968 Yom Kippur war with Israel. Removed / forcibly resigned from office by the army after 18 days of protests. He is believed to be currently residing in his Sharm el-Sheikh resort home.
  • Media coverage: excellent
  • Status: [highlight]toppled![/highlight] The Army is is currently in control of the country, pending a hand-over to the new interim government after elections scheduled in September. Over 300 dead.

Libya
  • An almost entirely Arab, Muslim, large, Oil-producing, Northern African, Mediterranean country.
  • Because of it's fairly low population and high rate of oil production, it has a high level of wealth per-capita, which is offset by being, quite possibly, the most repressive and tightly-controlled regime in the Arab word.
  • (former?) Nuclear-club wannabe.
  • Leader: Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi, as close to a genuine supervillan as reality will let you get. He's actually quite popular for fighting the good fight against the Great Satan of America for so many years. However, his health is poor which may be his undoing... Gaddafi is rumored to have fled the country.
  • Special note 1: According to one Al Jazeera commentator, protesters are being sniped by mercenary troops stationed on surrounding rooftops, as most of the protesters are dead from headshots (troops shooting on the ground tend to hit center-body-mass, as it is hard to aim while dodging rocks and firebombs).
  • Special note 2: There is a definite schism in the army, some supporting the army, some supporting the protesters.
  • Media coverage: good (which is surprising)
  • Status: [highlight]FULLY DESTABILIZED![/highlight] The regime has issued a statement: "anyone who goes against the government is committing suicide." The Internet and cell network are down! Protesters are openly being killed by pro-government police, mercenary troops, regular army troops, tanks, helicopter gunships, and bombed by jets. There has been extensive bombing and artillery shelling of protests in Tripoli, and other major cities. Protest groups combined with sympathetic army units in the southern part of the country have taken the oilfields there "hostage." The eastern half of the country is fully in the hands of the anti-government protesters and sympathetic army units. Well over 300 dead (and probably several times that...).

Bahrain
  • A tiny, tiny, Arab, Muslim, non-gas-or-oil producing, island Persian-Gulf State.
  • It is relatively-poor, compared to the surrounding oil-producing Persian Gulf-states. The Shia majority is ruled by the 10% Sunni minority, leading to sectarian friction. Host country to Manama Naval Base, home to the U.S. Navy's 5th fleet and is an important U.S. strategic interest.
  • Leader: Ruled as a monarchy by King Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa and Crown Prince Salman ibn Hamad ibn Isa Al Khalifa, but the real power appears to be hard-line Prime Minister Khalifa ibn Salman Al Khalifa, head of the army and security/police force.
  • Special note: The According to one Al Jazeera commentator, the Security Force and much of the Army are comprised by foreign mercenaries who have no compunction against shooting civilians.
  • Media coverage: good
  • Status: [highlight]Bloody open revolt.[/highlight] After a violent 3am police take-over of protest rally-point Pearl Roundabout, protesters re-grouped at Salmaniya Hospital, the only "open to the public" hospital on the island (there are are others, but they're for the Royal Family, the military, the police, and Sunni elites). Police have left Pearl Roundabout, which is now being re-occupied by protesters. 70 (probably more) dead.

Yemen
  • An Arab, Muslim, largely tribalist, smallish country on the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula.
  • Oil-poor, and without any other major industries to sustain it, Yemen is one of the poorest and least developed countries in the Arab World. Also poor. Really poor. West-African poor. Seriously.
  • Leader: President Ali Abdullah Saleh
  • Media coverage: fair
  • Status: [highlight]Bloody open revolt.[/highlight] Protesters are rallying to Yemeni University, and at last report, were being attacked by government-paid anti-protester thugs. 4 dead.

Jordan
  • Arab, mostly Muslim (with a small Christian minority), smallish, non-oil producing, very-dry high-desert, Arabian country.
  • A constitutional monarchy. Unlike it's neighbors, Jordan has few natural resources to exploit, so the country is trying to reshape itself as a regional business and banking hub via very progressive economic policies.
  • Leader: King Abdullah II
  • Media coverage: bad.
  • Status: [highlight]Peaceful open revolt.[/highlight] Although, there's been intermittent clashes with anti-protester groups.

Algeria
  • An almost entirely Arab, Muslim, large, Oil-producing, Northern African, Mediterranean country.
  • Largest country in the Arab world. Economy based mostly on oil, but the country is trying to expand it's economy into other areas, and is still recovering from a bloody, decade-long, civil war.
  • Leader: President Abdelaziz Bouteflika
  • Media coverage: poor.
  • Status: [highlight]Peaceful open revolt.[/highlight]

Syria
  • Mostly Arab, mostly Muslim, medium-sized, minor oil-producing, Eastern-Mediterranean Arabian country.
  • Formerly an fully-autocratic dictatorship, until President Hafiz al-Assad died on 10 June 2000, Sirya made a turn for the slightly more open and somewhat less repressive (baby steps). It is still in a state of open war with Israel, with clashes flaring up between the two countries on a regular basis.
  • Nuclear-club wannabe. Had an (alleged) fast-breeder reactor being constructed by North Korean experts, before Israel (allegedly) blew it to shit.
  • Leader: President Bashar al-Assad, son of the former president.
  • Media coverage: bad to none
  • Status: [highlight]Small protests[/highlight]
 
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Nesagwa

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Same thing started up in Yemen yesterday too. So, 3 revolutions in a week basically. Woo.
 

Marek

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Is that am emphatic woo?

Seems underwhelming for what is poised to be the most significant chain reaction revolutionary activity since the days of Simon Bolivar.

Then again the reality of the replacement gov could be worse than it was to begin with. Who knows!
 

Nesagwa

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Is that am emphatic woo?

Seems underwhelming for what is poised to be the most significant chain reaction revolutionary activity since the days of Simon Bolivar.

Then again the reality of the replacement gov could be worse than it was to begin with. Who knows!

On one hand, toppling dictators is an exciting prospect, especially when accomplished by a popular movement.

On the other, you could end up with something like happened in Iran.

I'm not really sure what to think of it at the moment. Tunisia lasted a few days and went down without much violence. I don't know if Egypt will go down as easily.

Biden calling a guy in power for 30 years and also just shut down all communications in his country "not a dictator" is a bit idiotic though.

EDIT:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/?foo=bar

Live stream of their Egypt coverage.
 
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Castor Troy

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I see it as a positive. Thanks to the internet, the last thing the youth movement want is to be stuck in a strict government.
ZNtKw.jpg
 

Lagduf

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Well it will be interesting to see how this develops.

Probably wont go the direction I'd like it to ideally, but one can hope.
 

Decepticon

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There is no way Mubarak stays in power after cutting off all communication and his "justification" for it was a piss poor excuse.

Asking all government officials to resign only shows how unstable the situation really is as he will now replace them with people he feels is loyal to him.

Unlike Iran which was sparked by a very contested and controversial election, this one is a true movement of the people after being inspired by Tunisia.

In Iran the protesters never stood a true chance at changing the leadership of the country, only their talking head president. The clerics still run the country.

The only problem I see facing Egypt is the fact there is no "leader" organizing this movement and the country can potentially be destabilized for years while an interim government is in place and an honest election is held without controversy.
 

abasuto

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No matter how the US acts in this situation, Obama will have done the wrong thing according to Fox News and the right thing according to Huffinton Post.
 

Phyeir

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It's 6:47 AM in Cairo. Sunrise. Let's see what the new day brings...

High chance of anarchy with some clouds of tear gas present. Highs for the day will be 108 degrees with lows being protesters ducking from rubber bullets.
 

Arcademan

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About a half-hour past midnight Friday morning in Egypt, the Internet went dead.

...network sensors showed that Egypt's four primary Internet providers -- Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr -- and all went dark at 12:34 a.m. Those companies shuttle all Internet traffic into and out of Egypt, though many people get their service through additional local providers with different names.

Italy-based Seabone said no Internet traffic was going into or out of Egypt after 12:30 a.m. local time.

"There's no way around this with a proxy. There is literally no route. It's as if the entire country disappeared.

Talk about literally pulling the plug out from an entire country.
 

Lagduf

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I wonder how no telecommunications is going to mess with their economy.
 

Nesagwa

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I wonder how no telecommunications is going to mess with their economy.

I dunno, keep an eye on Syria. They also just shut down all telecommunications in their country.
 

SNKorSWM

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Shutting down telecommunications would be a logical move to buy some time before the protesters start getting organized into a revolution and foreign news reporting too much too fast. As for their economy, this would probably be a good time for any arms dealers here to start supplyin'.
 

OMFG

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I wonder how no telecommunications is going to mess with their economy.

Cellularwise, the government can shut down government owned, land based facilities that provide service to mobile service providers (towers). This will in turn get the companies like Vodafone and Telecom Egypt to find other sources of transport to get the towers back up. There has to be privatized companies that may step up to remedy this. The market won't be up and running on the weekend, but who knows what market confidence will push toward for existing Egyptian businesses on Monday. They are keeping one IP open for trading as I don't think the government would be even dumber to allow a full business crash in their country. Then again who knows. I wonder what the airport/border situation is over there during this period.

Anyone providing satellite communication services is situated to profit from this very much.
 

Takumaji

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This is a good thing. I hope the Egyptians are successful in chasing Mubarak and his butt-buddies away. Same goes for the Yemenites and Tunisians.

Power to the people, etc.

I hope this extends to Iran.
 

Takumaji

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I'd love to go down to Egypt and try to find a way around the internet and cellular phone shutdown. I'm sure there IS a way.
 

Decepticon

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I'd love to go down to Egypt and try to find a way around the internet and cellular phone shutdown. I'm sure there IS a way.

I read yesterday about a group looking to provide Ad-Hoc cell and Wi-Fi services using backpack hardware that will redirect all traffic through satellite.

There is also some foreign ISP's allowing free dialup access but the downside to that is that the user incurs international long distance fees per minute and the speed is obviously at 56K.
 

Takumaji

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Cool.

This is sort of a wakeup call to discreetly setup backup systems, specially in countries like Egypt with a regime-like government.
 
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