In 20 years where do you see the world going?

evil wasabi

The Jongmaster
20 Year Member
This is not so much about the Trump administration as much as where I see the intersect of technology and human behavior.

Over the past 20 years we have seen the rise of "strongmen" like Putin and Erdogan, as well as instances in the FSU (former soviet union states like Azerbaijan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan) where the leadership is entrenched and will not release political control. With the relentless attacks on the the American political system, and our rule of law at stake, it's a matter of time before we, probably not even noticing it, lose our voice in the political process all together.

My vision is that we will automate, as everyone expects, services like HR, legal, and medical, as well as a lot of governmental services, financial, etc. I already expect that big companies that have big data are using that resource to let AI decide who the best potential job candidates are in HR (can you imagine Google and FB aren't already doing this?), what the best arguments are to present to a certain judge or jurisdiction, what's happening in your MRI scan, etc. The services will be cheaper because computers are doing the work. The people who own the computers will make the money. The doctors, lawyers, HR people, etc will be out of work or transitioned.

And for the most part, people will be told that the machines are unbiased. And in many industries they will indeed be, at first.

But imagine, if you will, that the HR machines have levels of administration rights, and the person at the top, who seems like a decent guy, is actually Vladimir Putin in disguise (crazy hypothetical, right?), and he has managed to diminish the safeguards on the HR system, and commands the program to only seek out applicants who fit his ethos, and have amazing bodies, and not older than 27. He would be able to manage people out of financial stability, and in effect disenfranchise them, while increasing the social standing of idiots who support him.

I guess, TL;DR is that I see people like Zuckerberg and I think he's pretty crooked. I don't trust him at the top. I see the way Larry Page interacted with Silicon Valley counterparts, and I see a guy who is shadowy, especially in the wake of the contract with DoD for Project Maven. I think our machines are evolving at a rate that is beyond the maturity of the human race, and this could be what truly opens the dimensional portal into Mordor.
 

GhostSeed

Angel's Love Slave
10 Year Member
That already happened.

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2018-palantir-peter-thiel/

High above the Hudson River in downtown Jersey City, a former U.S. Secret Service agent named Peter Cavicchia III ran special ops for JPMorgan Chase & Co. His insider threat group—most large financial institutions have one—used computer algorithms to monitor the bank’s employees, ostensibly to protect against perfidious traders and other miscreants.

Aided by as many as 120 “forward-deployed engineers” from the data mining company Palantir Technologies Inc., which JPMorgan engaged in 2009, Cavicchia’s group vacuumed up emails and browser histories, GPS locations from company-issued smartphones, printer and download activity, and transcripts of digitally recorded phone conversations. Palantir’s software aggregated, searched, sorted, and analyzed these records, surfacing keywords and patterns of behavior that Cavicchia’s team had flagged for potential abuse of corporate assets. Palantir’s algorithm, for example, alerted the insider threat team when an employee started badging into work later than usual, a sign of potential disgruntlement. That would trigger further scrutiny and possibly physical surveillance after hours by bank security personnel.

Over time, however, Cavicchia himself went rogue. Former JPMorgan colleagues describe the environment as Wall Street meets Apocalypse Now, with Cavicchia as Colonel Kurtz, ensconced upriver in his office suite eight floors above the rest of the bank’s security team. People in the department were shocked that no one from the bank or Palantir set any real limits. They darkly joked that Cavicchia was listening to their calls, reading their emails, watching them come and go. Some planted fake information in their communications to see if Cavicchia would mention it at meetings, which he did.

It all ended when the bank’s senior executives learned that they, too, were being watched, and what began as a promising marriage of masters of big data and global finance descended into a spying scandal. The misadventure, which has never been reported, also marked an ominous turn for Palantir, one of the most richly valued startups in Silicon Valley. An intelligence platform designed for the global War on Terror was weaponized against ordinary Americans at home.
 

Mr Bakaboy

Beast Buster
In 20 years the oil industry will be scaled back tremendously. The medical industry will have a severe shortage in medical personnel when they finally automate what your regular pill (er... family) doctors do, most will not want the headache to specialize into further fields considering the amount of money it will take to get there, so prices for insurance will go up even more ridiculously.

There will be laws introduced then mandating workers to have a minimal amount of retirement savings (similar to medical now) because too many elder workers will be pushed out of their fields with nowhere to go since the service industry will be going to mostly automation. Also social security will be a complete joke or nonexistent by then. So, the idiot who decided to retire (pushed out) from his stressful job in his late 50's and realizes years later his savings is not going to sustain him more then 10-15 years will be in severe poverty by his late 60's-early 70's.

College will be government regulated. Lastly eating unhealthy will be taxed like cigarettes/alcohol plus being fat will make insurance rates skyrocket. So, the average obese percentages will go down simply because you can't afford to be.
 

evil wasabi

The Jongmaster
20 Year Member

Thanks for that link. It's exactly what I imagine things like now - and that in 20 years, it will be much worse.

There are anti-fraud design rules that should be employed in any system you enter into. One of those rules is that responsibility should be spread out. The guy who signs the checks shouldn't be the guy cashing checks or accounting. The guy who monitors the system shouldn't be the guy who programs it.
 

StevenK

ng.com SFII tournament winner 2002-2023
10 Year Member
With the relentless attacks on the the American political system, and our rule of law at stake, it's a matter of time before we, probably not even noticing it, lose our voice in the political process all together.

This needs to happen

The people who own the computers will make the money. The doctors, lawyers, HR people, etc will be out of work or transitioned.

Before this can happen.

Otherwise there's no way people are going to vote for a handful of people to earn everything while they, and not just the usual low IQ fucknuts, pick at dirt.

And I just don't see it. The dogmatic approach Americans take to the constitution, though often tedious to hear, comforts me that you're not going to sell yourselves down the line for nothing.

Currency debasement, war, and welfare. Eventual economic collapse as a result.

Within 20 years? I bet you've been saying this for ten years already.

This is a can that can be kicked down a long and purposefully obscured road and is absolutely no excuse for you doing nothing with your life at 20 something years old.
 

oliverclaude

General Morden's Aide
I was never good in predicting events, but since we're living among the remains of dead people anyway, the search for signs of passing was more like it. So, let's look 20 years back... it's 1998, in three years the American and United Airlines Flights 11 and 175 will crash into the WTC. Let's go back another 20 years from there, it's 1978 and the Soviet–Afghan War is about to begin, eventually leading to the September 11 attacks. In eight years the Chernobyl disaster will occur.

I had once bought several volumes of world history and after reading this thread I took them out. It was not particularly cheerful to read them. The only thing one gained by it was a strangely depressing satisfaction that what was happening today was not new. Everything had happened before dozens of times and there's no end to it. There's also no way to make sense of it, even if you'd know what will happen beforehand... aside from this depressing satisfaction that what will happen then, will not be new.
 

Late

Reichsf?rer-Finnland,
20 Year Member
Who would have ever thought a dystopia would turn out so banal.

We were prophesied this:
1984-movie-_1487710995418_9029259_ver1.0_1280_720.jpg

serveimage


This is what we got, an autist with budding hormone moobs:
serveimage


MehTV
 

Tripredacus

Three 6 Mafia
10 Year Member
It is hard to tell but things end up moving way more slowly than it would seem they would. It could be pretty much the same as now.

If there is one thing I can think of, which is a thing I thought about 20 years ago but is slowly taking shape... having an old computer may be a premium 20 years from now. As internet service will be gatewayed, along the lines of how if you used AOL you could only access their platform (while of course you could just use AOL for the connection and use something else), but I can see in the future that ISPs will grand internet access into platforms. Browsers will move along this route as well as we can see that some companies already restrict websites to specific browsers and/or versions. And the only way to get to the true internet, instead of the walled garden, may be some old Windows XP computer that doesn't have the restrictions and "standards" of modern software.

Summary: the current www will be merged into the darknet, as sponsored content platforms will be the default primary access to the internet. Content moderated to be approved for consumption by corporations or the government. Companies have to pay to be in the system, or will not be seen.

Pirate internet will still exist (as we can say darknet is this already) in similar methods as pirate radio or underground newspapers. There is never any true way to silence these groups entirely.
 

StevenK

ng.com SFII tournament winner 2002-2023
10 Year Member
This is slightly off topic so apologies for this, but what do you think the future of cars is?

I was thinking it through the other day, once self driving cars are common and we see the sharp drop in road traffic accidents, is the logical conclusion that self driving your car will become illegal?
 

Tripredacus

Three 6 Mafia
10 Year Member
This is slightly off topic so apologies for this, but what do you think the future of cars is?

I was thinking it through the other day, once self driving cars are common and we see the sharp drop in road traffic accidents, is the logical conclusion that self driving your car will become illegal?

The current attempts to shoehorn self driving cars onto normal roads will be a failure. The correct way to do this is having roads or lanes specifically for the self driving cars, and if they end up gaining popularity, then they can slowly change the percenatage of roads/lanes that use them. This is viable in cities where you could see highways and major roads eventually being only for self-driving cars, while suburbs and country roads are not designed for that purpose. You can see a vision of how that particular method would work in the movie Minority Report.
 

Late

Reichsf?rer-Finnland,
20 Year Member
^He's no mastermind nor genius, he's just riding the wave for all that it's worth.
 

Mr Bakaboy

Beast Buster
This is slightly off topic so apologies for this, but what do you think the future of cars is?

I was thinking it through the other day, once self driving cars are common and we see the sharp drop in road traffic accidents, is the logical conclusion that self driving your car will become illegal?

I'd bet on electric cars surpassing gas power cars one day. Honestly doubt self driving will catch on. Tripredacus said it best the roads would have to be catered toward them. With the amount of money spent there wouldn't it just be cheaper to install public transportation in areas.Buying a few buses vs spending on remodeling all the roads to accomplish this seems like a no brainer
 

fake

King of Spammers
15 Year Member
Worldwide, I don't really know. For the US:

The first manned adventure to Mars will be a disaster. We won't make another attempt for 20 or 30 years. Even then, it will be a nightmare. It will be one-way trips for the people who will build the infrastructure to grow food and prevent radiation poisoning. In 100 or 200 years, there will be a draft to send people to colonize Mars.

Menial tasks will be automated, adding about 15% to the level of unemployment -- cashiers, waiters, most customer service, retail warehouses, etc. There will still be humans that stock shelves and whatnot. Business will try to have AI write the news but it won't turn out well. Areas of the US that relied on retail will suffer quite a bit.

A substantial amount of specialty retailers will go out of business like Toys R Us. Trendy cities will still have independent shops, but the suburbs and whatnot will be stuck with big box stores almost exclusively. Large book stores, electronics stores, etc. will be gone.

The music industry may rage quit. The major labels will still be making millions on big artists, but it won't be enough for them. 360 deals will be even worse for performers. Movie theater locations will decrease by about 25% or 30%.

I've been saying for years what Tripredicus mentioned: The internet will be rigidly walled. There will no longer be a URL bar. You'll have to click to the Disney, NBCU, Fox, etc. channels. Small sites will have to pay a lot of money to have links to their sites posted. The wild west days of the internet are almost over.

Most things will be subscription based - this is already happening with media, but it will become the norm for food, etc.

Healthcare systems will fall apart more and more. But I don't think a scorched earth solution is coming for another 50-100 years when everything becomes centralized / digitized and privacy becomes a thing of the past for the sake of easier / more efficient record-keeping. I think surgeons and whatnot will still be around to control and supervise robots that administrate healthcare.

The number of students enrolling in college will decrease due to tuition price gouging. I'm speculating here, but some sort of new-school college / university could emerge and generate a lot of buzz. Something that has a real campus (i.e., not an online school) that has a clear billing structure, charges a minimum for books (which will all be electronic), etc.

Energy companies will make a push for microgrids with the aim of enabling arbitrage.

We may discover signs of extra terrestrial life.

The US will use Russia's strategy to rig foreign elections.

Politics may grind to a halt with a system that's basically designed for gridlock. Every four years, new things are enabled, and after four years, they're repealed. The US will stagnate in terms of progress in equality, etc.

I'm sure I have more, but that's what I've got off the top of my head.
 
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Heinz

Parteizeit
15 Year Member
You know in Australia I couldn't see any of the aforementioned visions occurring within 20 years, I couldn't see them occurring in 100 years.

I find solace in the fact that it's simply unfeasible here, that the culture here rejects these things naturally. Self driving cars? why? you a poof?, automated systems? we only just got automated checkouts at supermarkets and no one knows wtf is going on, healthcare? welfare!? the government can't go back on it's universal offerings without revolt of the bogan class.
 

WoodyXP

Setsuna's Owl Keeper,
15 Year Member
The entire world is going to get offended and the world will implode under the pressure of hurt feelings.
 

Mr Bakaboy

Beast Buster
^ Speaking of that I'm betting the generation after this one will turn into new age hippies since this uptight bullshit is very reminiscent of the 1950's and it seems everything in life gets recycled. Even the way people view the world.
 

GhostSeed

Angel's Love Slave
10 Year Member
Video at the link.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/5/17/17344250/google-x-selfish-ledger-video-data-privacy

Google has built a multibillion-dollar business out of knowing everything about its users. Now, a video produced within Google and obtained by The Verge offers a stunningly ambitious and unsettling look at how some at the company envision using that information in the future.

The video was made in late 2016 by Nick Foster, the head of design at X (formerly Google X) and a co-founder of the Near Future Laboratory. The video, shared internally within Google, imagines a future of total data collection, where Google helps nudge users into alignment with their goals, custom-prints personalized devices to collect more data, and even guides the behavior of entire populations to solve global problems like poverty and disease.

When reached for comment on the video, an X spokesperson provided the following statement to The Verge:

“We understand if this is disturbing -- it is designed to be. This is a thought-experiment by the Design team from years ago that uses a technique known as ‘speculative design’ to explore uncomfortable ideas and concepts in order to provoke discussion and debate. It’s not related to any current or future products.”
 

K_K

Honourary Irishman.,
20 Year Member
You know in Australia I couldn't see any of the aforementioned visions occurring within 20 years, I couldn't see them occurring in 100 years.

I find solace in the fact that it's simply unfeasible here, that the culture here rejects these things naturally. Self driving cars? why? you a poof?, automated systems? we only just got automated checkouts at supermarkets and no one knows wtf is going on, healthcare? welfare!? the government can't go back on it's universal offerings without revolt of the bogan class.

Unexpected item in the bagging area!

But seriously, I don't know what Ireland 20 years from now will be my mortgage will be nearly done though so don't ruin that for me.
 

fake

King of Spammers
15 Year Member
Speaking of tech paranoia... I just called my credit card company. They asked if I would consent to them taking an impulse response of my voice. You know, for security purposes.
 
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