I don't see the bubble bursting on the Neo market. Ebay sellers aren't lowering prices because there is no incentive to do so. They know, sooner or later (especially with AES and in-demand MVS games), someone will pay that outrageous price. With so many conversions and boots out there, getting into AES now doesn't make sense. I got lucky and managed to rebuild my original 90s/00s collection in a matter of months, at prices way below market value. However, that took a lot of ridiculous patience, non-stop stalking and DEBT. I still track prices on Ebay and a good deal pops up every once in a while but almost all the bargains have dried up. High demand, low population and rampant hoarding do not make this hobby cheap.
I will admit, there's nothing like those sexy, shiny black carts and all that superb artwork but for you noobs out there, just get CMVS and call it a day. Mix in a 161 and a few OG carts and you'll be good to go. Let us old farts worry about AES.