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I think it would be interesting in a few years (if this site is still up and running) to see how this forum predicted how the upcoming console sales would pan out. Either an estimated dollar amount, total number of units sold, or comparison sales (Console X sold will sell twice as much as Console Y, etc.)
This thread isn't about favorites or fanboyism, it doesn't matter what unreleased console you favor sight unseen.
In 4 years I see it as
Xbox360: 50 million worldwide
PS3: 60 million worldwide
REv: 20 million worldwide
and if you're nit pickin then
DS: 75 million worldwide
PSP: 50 million worldwide
Well, I think its pretty safe to assume that the same 3 players are going to be going at it this next round since noone else appears to be launching a new console. Sega appears to be happy with the Arcade scene and using others consoles for their home games and ports. And that Phantom console is still total vaporware.
3rd place - Nintendo. With that tv remote control like controller, I can't see them getting out of last place. I expect some awesome 1st party games from Nintendo and a whole bunch of shit (think Deerhunter) from small fry third parties. Probably even less cross platform games then the GameCube and thats a bad thing since a lot of the bigger games devs only want to do this now.
1st/2nd place - Tie between MS and Sony. MS launching up to a year earlier than the PS3 combined with a superior online model gives them a huge advantage.
XB360 will certainly outsell PS3 by a wide margin this time, although in Japan it will be the opposite of this. I also predict the Revolution will do very poorly, and will be Nintendo's last home console for some time. Parents buying their kiddy safe console for lil Johnny and Jenny will be utterly confused about the Rev's controller.
PSP sales will increase slowly as better games are released. UMD movies, while they are a flash in the pan now will be in bargain-bin status by Spring of next year.
Popularity of retro-gaming will continue to grow through the next year, and we will see alot more of compilations due to their inexpense (as they are already designed).
In a few years, SEGA will return in the home console market if... MS or Sony fails.
PC gaming will reduce in popularity just a little bit each year but will always have its respect and cult-like status and cutting-edge technology.
I think that the 360 will have a life like the Dreamcast (good beginning till the coming of the PS3, which will probably be a blockbuster).
Like Electroman, I think that the Revolution will be the last home console. I really doubt of Nintendo's come back, even if I would like it, since I began playing with NES.
I think that one day Sony will fail, but not with the PS3. It will be a challenger we would not expect. To my mind, it is to late for Nintendo et Microsoft, gamers always remember mistakes from home console (Saturn -> Dreamcast / Nintendo 64 -> Nintendo Game Cube). If someone have to win, it will be a new one, like with the 32-bits generation... who would guess that a tv contructor would become the king of home console?
For the portable console, it should be hard for both, with a little advantage for Nintendo... Even if they are enemy, I think they are not matching for the same market... DS gamers are looking for fun games, PSP gamers are looking for entertainment in general...
It's pretty much going to be a toss-up between the two console giants (Sony vs. MS),with the Big N finishing last.
The X360 seems to have a rather unfair advantage over the PS3 at the moment,due to its earlier launch date and its online-friendliness. The question remains: will it succumb to the same fate as the DC?
On the other hand,we have Sony. With its bold move towards a new format (blue-ray),one can only wonder if this decision will help or hinder the system. While the thought of having a 100GB+ game on a single disc may seem perfectly fitting for the next-gen,but whether or not the consumer market is ready to pay for it is the real mystery.
B-
Interesting idea
I think that in japan, the Revolution and PS3 are going to be very near eachother in terms of sales. The 360 will lag behind, but not as bad as with the past Xbox. The USA will have the most 360 sales by a very small amount, and the Revolution will come in third, though do much better than the Gamecube,
Playstation 3 - 70,000,000
Xbox 360 - 40,000,000
Revolution - 20,000,000
I think this is very probable and this is assuming that Microsoft actually takes around 20,000,000 PS2 users by launching early. Don't see them leading as they seem to be on track to flop in Japan yet again and Sony still has the most exclusive games the mainstream loves.
just as a comparison, what are the current gen sales figures for all of the systems?
I really don't know shit about it, but according to Wikipedia it'sQuote:
Originally Posted by beatifik
I'm sure someone knows more about region specific stuff.Quote:
The current worldwide sales stand at around 18 million for the Gamecube, around 22 million for the Xbox, and in excess of 90 million for the PS2
I think the XB360 will do well until the PS3 launches. I think Sony is smart to wait and see how M$ pricing structure does. I am hoping the PS3 will be in the $299.99-$349.99 mark, but who knows. In the end, Sony will dominate again as they always do.
GAMEFAN
Sony PSIII: 30,000 units
God: 5,000,000 units
Group of Mini Mike Ditkas: 300,000,000 Units
+1 :buttrock:Quote:
Originally Posted by Gamefan
For the price, I expect something like 399$... but for this price, you'll have in the same time a Blu-Ray player...
America:
1. PS3
2. Xbox 360
3. Revolution
Japan:
1. PS3
2. Revolution
3. Dreamcast
4. Xbox 360
Wikipedia's numbers are correct from the last figures. I know there were 18,670,000 or so GCN's last month. Sony has annouced they shipped 90,000,000 earlier in the year and MS hasn't really said anything concrete besides they are over the GCN.Quote:
Originally Posted by Stinky-Dinkins
Man is it hard t say right now. As much as I love em’ I will say Nintendo will fail for the most part on their next system. I also expect it to be their last home console for the time being, they might move into handheld units only. As for the Sony-vs-MS debate, I somewhat think the 360 will win this round due to Sony’s bullshit ulterior motives for the PS3. The 360 is a gaming machine where Sony wants the PS3 to be a media hub, I'm not so sure it will do as well (the Blu Ray thing is still confusing). I guess only time will tell…
I would say it all depends on how much the PS3 will cost. From what Sony is offering with the PS3 I think it will be 400+. And that will probably not include a hard drive. So im guessing that they will either scale back some of the features they announced for it, or wait till late 06 to early '07 to release it for a cheaper price. And if the PS2 launch is any indication of how it will be. Japan will get it a few months before the rest of the world.
If thats the case then I think the 360 really has a chance for the top spot in the US and Europe. In Japan it will still probably flop. MS has really gotten their shit together with getting more publishers on board. And at least some of the Japanese developers see that their is profit to be made for making/porting games for the 360/xbox. At least in the US anyways.
The Revolution wont have any ported games so that means once again that first party games will be the only thing worth having for it. But it will also be the cheapest of the three. So it will sell decently.
PS3 : 70 million
X360 : 60 million
Rev : 15 million
As stated by most, I agree that the PS3 and Rev will have it's glory in Japan. X360 will dominate America.
I'm thinking that Xbox will take the lead this round overall, and that Sony will be unable to deliver on their lofty promises. The Revolution will be a modest success, as was the Gamecube, but will not be a serious contender for 1st or 2nd place, and will in no way threaten the market dominance of either Sony or Microsoft.
Gamers will begin to appreciate the quality of Xbox Live when compared to Sony's rather skeletal online plans, and this combined with Microsoft's new sleeker machine and collosal marketing campaign will propel them to # 1. Sony is shooting itself in the foot by basically ignoring the importance of a unified online system.
I still don't see the Xbox leading in Japan, but I think it will make a much stronger showing, probably easily obtaining a second place finish. The 360 will take the top spot here in the states, and in Europe.
As for the handheld market, I'm much less comfortable commenting, since I couldn't fucking care less. But I'll give it a go anyway. I see the PSP continuing to struggle, and the DS maintaining the lead (Innovation and gameplay beating graphics? Who knew the masses were capable of making sound judgements from time to time?). I don't really see Microsoft entering the handheld market within the next 2 years, but who knows after that.
I agree with Galfordo. At least in the US I see the the MS coming out on top this round. MS really proved their worth with the Xbox and it's become on helluva console. At least as I see your starting to see casual gamers rather having an Xbox then a PS2 at this point.Quote:
Originally Posted by galfordo
I look forward to the 360 launch.
i myself am a DC whore, but c'mon, jeez...Quote:
Originally Posted by LoneSage
________
well, i think Sony will still be at it with MS on the top spots, as for Ninty, well, it's prolly be thier swan song in the console market
I fail to see this good beginning you are talking about...Quote:
I think that the 360 will have a life like the Dreamcast (good beginning till the coming of the PS3, which will probably be a blockbuster).
Or so Sony says .... :spock:Quote:
Originally Posted by Mefffisto
As things stand, it doesn't even look like the HD format wars will be even close to being settled when Sony launches their new machine.
Anyone who honestly thinks that the 360's lifespan will be anything like the DC's is out of their fucking mind. Recall that Sega was basically crippled at that point, whereas Microsoft can buy and trade third world countries like fucking baseball cards. Microsoft isn't going to let the 360 be a failure, whatever the cost.
Something tells me that, although Microsoft has a massive amount of cash to play with, they arnt going to throw money at their console division indefinately. They are a company that answers to their shareholders, so profit is key, and if the X360 isnt profitable within 4 years..... who knows?Quote:
Originally Posted by galfordo
Well, whatever. I'm not too sure about this round to be honest. Historically, no company has been no.1 for more than 2 generations in a row, historically the first console to launch has never been the leader, and historically no company has yet come back from a 'failure' in the previous generation.
Then again, Historically no consoles have been as big a success as the Playstation ones, historically no console has had an online service like the Xbox, and historically no console has had a 'wandy-thing' as its main draw.
I dunno, somehow this round just feels a lot like the last - all 3 companies seem to be pegging their hopes on similar things to last time so I'll just go with the conservative guess that things are gonna be much the same as this round, with the PS3 having a sizeable lead, the X360 in 2nd place (speaking globally of course) and the Rev doing ok in Japan, wank in the west and being 3rd overall.
don't be surprised if the 360 takes off in Japan. It's taking those nips a while, but they seem to be seeing the light with the online gaming and roms... :D I think the xbox 360 will be hacked too.
1. 360 (50%)
2. PS3 (35%)
3. Rev (15%) <<< Sorry, but I have a feeling the remote control is going to end up scaring people away
I think most gamers might be content with the 360 if they have already purchesed one prior to the PS3 launch. I really don't see a huge leap in graphics or appeal in the PS3 by existing 360 owners and for future owners I really don't see them buying a PS3 over a 360 if it doesn't include a HD or is more expensive by the time it launches
I'm not so sure about the Rev, since iirc it Nintendo said that it will also have a normal controller for the usual games so ports will not be impossible.
Also, it seems the final controller for the PS3 hasn't been revealed so again I'm not so sure. I mean if its something along the lines of Rev's remote (someone said something about a wand like thing?) then Rev's innovation stance doesn't really work all too well.
This time ppl know about the Xbox so imo game selection will play a greater role overall. In this sense I think the PS3 will come out on top again since it already seems to have the usual sequels ppl expect and want (MGS4, the new FFs, DMC4 etc).
Developers will play it safe this time imo cuz of the the escalating dev costs, so they will either choose their console fast or there will be lots of ports.
I wonder if a PS2 price drop somewhere around the 360's launch would do any damagae to its sales.
PS3 = 1st place
360/Rev = fight for 2nd and 3rd
I believe things won't change.
1. PlayStation3
2. Xbox360
3. Revolution
What worries me is the fact that Nintendo stated that if the Revo would sell only as much as the GameCube, they would consider it a failure.
Interesting articles on the matter -
ArsTechnica
Cross-platform game development and the next generation of consoles -
1UP.com
Is the Xbox360 the second coming of the Dreamcast?
1st PS3
2nd Xbox 360
3rd Revolution
It all depends on the games. The 360 has a slight advantage due to the early release date, but if there are no real killer apps that keep ppl busy until the PS3 comes out (and I can't see any), the 360 will do fine until Sony's new baby hits the market, from then on it's all about PS3.Quote:
Originally Posted by BIG
I don't think both consoles will come out even. Yeah, the 360 has good online options, but the similarity of many 360 titles to PC games and the PC ports of 360 games that will inevitably follow may lead to delayed interest. I mean, those who own PCs capable of running stuff like Quake 4 and other new games mostly have no interest in buying a consolized PC, even tho the 360 is more than that (but it's the general consensus about the machine).
The "compatibility" of Sega's Lindbergh board to the 360 is what interests me most at the moment. It's very likely that we'll see ports of Lindbergh games on it, given that Sega's new baby is quite PC-ish as well... then again, most of the other arcade ports will be released for PS3, so I'll probably end up buying all three new consoles in a couple of years, like it turned out with PS2-Xbox-GC... 360 for 3D, PS3 for the arcade ports and Rev for a bit of freshness and new ideas.
Shit, why doesn't money grow on trees?
I don't see the 360 becoming the next DC at all as far as sales go
the power of the 360 isn't that far behind the PS3
the only thing I can compare them with is the form of media both will use
Will the DVD = GDRom, while the Blu-Ray = the new format standard akin to the DVD back in 2000?
Only time will tell if developers will have trouble with the formats.
I'm curious to see how much games will cost for the PS3 with the new format
Actually, the X360 is not similar to Sega's Lindbergh board in terms of hardware -- seeing ports of Lindbergh-based games on either the PS3 or X360 will depend anything but hardware similarities between these systems and the arcade board.Quote:
Originally Posted by Takumaji
1: PS3
2: Revolution
3: XBOX 360
I'm looking forward to seeing how it pans out, but don't really have plans to buy any yet.
Reasons:
PS3 is going to be expensive, but it has the big name sequels and the next gen media to boot. Visuals are very pretty if MGS4 trailer is anything to go by. SONY has a proven track record with the PS1 and PS2. Price is very important though.
Revolution has a great concept. Backward compatibility, access to Nintendo's entire back catalogue (plus no doubt other companies will join in), a completely new take on game control/interraction, plus a reportedly great development environment that enables big scope at low cost. It will also have Nintendo games, which no one else can offer.
XBOX 360 may be first out of the bag, but doesn't seem to offer much new. Performance wise I have yet to see anything that doesn't make me think this isn't just an XBOX 1.5. It should have great on-line support, but is that really what matters? I don't know. Development costs look high, and this is something I don't think the 360 can afford. Ninety Nine Nights is said to have cost around 1.7 billion yen (US$15.3 million). That's a lot of money for a rookie title. They are advertising it a lot in Japanese game mags. I wonder if anyone is taking notice.
This is what I think is going to happen. Remember Sony still has those third party exclusive like: Metal Gear Solid, Final Fantasy (the proper sequels), Grand Theft Auto (atleast first), Tekken, and Devil May Cry.Quote:
Originally Posted by Takumaji
This is nintendo's biggest mistake. They should have been more up front with there information. That controller is a turn off to me because I just want a standard pad. Not something revolutionary, just something simple.
The 360 pad looks pretty good to me.
I can see the X360 doing verry well... maybe 60% of the worldwide market, PS3 with its 3DO-style pricing would get 20 and same for nintendo imo.
X360 has good 3rd party support, targetting japanese well better (treasure shmup, lots of rpgs, namco RR, heck they even have mahjong and pachinko games planed)
Btw, nintendo releases a universal TV remote having the same design as Rev pad through their club nintendo thingy (look at game watch) :) They precise that it is not a controler though
Universal is the only remaining studio supporting HD-DVD exclusively. Even Warner has joined the BluRay association and will be putting titles out, and it's commonly believed they're only maintaining support for HD-DVD to save face after pushing it for so long. Most other studios and manufacturers are firmly in the BluRay camp. Nobody wants two formats, particularly retailers. They'll back the format with the widest support, and that's now BluRay. NEC and Toshiba don't have the money to manufacture and market HD-DVD all by themselves.Quote:
Originally Posted by galfordo
Believe me, the prerecorded HD format wars are over.
[QUOTE=thirdkind]Universal is the only remaining studio supporting HD-DVD exclusively. Even Warner has joined the BluRay association and will be putting titles out, and it's commonly believed they're only maintaining support for HD-DVD to save face after pushing it for so long. Most other studios and manufacturers are firmly in the BluRay camp. Nobody wants two formats, particularly retailers. They'll back the format with the widest support, and that's now BluRay. NEC and Toshiba don't have the money to manufacture and market HD-DVD all by themselves.QUOTE]
And that's why Sony will win the next gen war, as it did with the PS2, which permit most of family to play DVD and games...
Universal Pictures will join one day, it's sure... Even Universal Music signed with Blu-Ray.
Worldwide, many financial groups are predicting 360 to outsell ps3. The ps3 is going to cost a lot of money overall for the hardware and software. People aren't going to like that. Sony has made major promises regarding the PS3, and I'm not sure they will come through on everything.
As far as the handheld market, I don't see the PSP struggling as you all do. They aren't going to take over the market either. Sony is simply trying to gain a market that is not being taken by Nintendo. Madden and GTA gamers are not playing the DS or any other Nintendo handheld for that matter. If Sony can capture that substantial market, the PSP will be successful enough.
Let's also remember that the PSP's hardware will last quite some time if Nintendo doesn't make any strides. If the system has a life of 8 years (which may happen) it won't take a lot of annual sales for it to be at least somewhat successful.
I'm not convinced that either format will make it for video. There is simply no demand for a new video disc format. People are just starting to get comfortable with DVD, and people just don't have sufficient hardware to support a higher resolution video. The earliest I could see a new format becoming popular would be maybe 2009, when all tv shows are supposed to be HD.Quote:
Originally Posted by thirdkind
PS3 62M
XB 60M
REV 28M
I really hope the rev catches on...
dittoQuote:
Originally Posted by IMTheWalrus
a lot of people are nowhere near interested in buying a new format
Most people are just starting to record their own DVDs and building their collections
it's almost like selling the LD to a guy that has a nice stock of VHS tapes
HD-DVD and Blu Ray are coming. They are going to force us there. Once they start all the ZOMG Special Features stuff and better quality people will slowly start buying them. Hell I think the higher capacity alone is almost worth it.
how much will a burner cost?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark of the Wolves
this will play big into it, as a lot of people like the idea of recording DVDs and such
even with the ZOMG features, mister average man may be like "I already have a DVD player and that's good enough for me"
Most people think that DVD player is good enough... but we'll have no other choice than following the new market...Quote:
Originally Posted by roker
I never believe the financial groups... 1st of all, they don't know this market, what gamers are waiting for... they should go on studying the Nasdaq instead of saying silly things (an english study predicted that they would be at 33,33% each, ahah)Quote:
Originally Posted by IMTheWalrus
And remember that for the actual gen match, they predicted that Nintendo would give up the home market...
Really? How'd you figure?Quote:
Originally Posted by roker
B-
I dunnoQuote:
Originally Posted by BIG
I read the preliminary reports
most people think some of the claims by Sony are fluff
Serious question: Do you really think it's going to be a HUGE jump in terms of graphics with the PS3 vs. 360? Even then, did the avg consumer care that the Xbox was more powerful than the PS2?
As long as most games remain multi-platform and some killer apps are involved, I really don't see graphics being a primary reason to own one console over another. Most mainstream gamers only care about getting their EA sports fix and nothing else, I know plenty of people with PS2s that only play Madden and NBA Live. So if 360 is offering next gen sports games on launch day, I don't see those gamers choosing a PS3 over a 360.
most people can choose NOT to upgradeQuote:
Originally Posted by Mefffisto
it's happened before and it can happen again . . . easily
Agree with you, but people won't do it (this time).Quote:
Originally Posted by roker
For the power of 360/PS3, it should be almost the same, with a little advantage for the PS3. But power means nothing. It will be the games which will make the difference...
Given Sony's past ( hyping up the PS2 to kill off the DC ), I won't believe anything about the true ability of the PS3 until I see it running. When the smoke clears, I'm sure the 360 and PS3 will probably be within 90% of each other as far as power goes.Quote:
Originally Posted by roker
Except for Tecmo's work with Ninja Gaiden and stuff, the Xbox never really pushed it to the graphical limits. PS2 games were pushed quite a bit, mainly in thanks to Konami, and even though I hate it, Gran Turismo 3 is still amazing to look at today.
Just not enough devs squeezed the Xbox's juice for what it was worth.