The Rise of the X-Box? [NY Times article]

aria

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Is the X-Box's tech edge going to lay the ground work of future success (i.e. tie-ins with software developers?). Read and decide.

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April 29, 2004
Playing Catch-Up on the Console
By MICHEL MARRIOTT - NY TIMES

29XBOX.cartoon.jpg


IN an inconspicuous Texas office building, doom is being sealed pixel by pixel, polygon by polygon. More precisely, Doom 3, the long-awaited sequel in the enormously successful Doom video game series, is taking shape in the studios of Id Software.

Early glimpses reveal a hellish vision: gut-sucking demons, skeletal spiders topped with inverted human skulls and other assorted grotesqueries skittering and scampering along dark hallways. And Id has not yet settled on a release date for Doom 3 (sometime this year, they say), one thing is clear: the game has been designed to be played on only one console, Microsoft's Xbox.

"Exclusivity has nothing to do with any decision to go with Microsoft for what we could get out of it," said Todd Hollenshead, Id's chief executive. "It was a technology motivation entirely."

Faced with years of game development costing millions of dollars, Id concluded that Microsoft's big black console had critical technology that its rivals - Sony's PlayStation 2, by far the industry leader, and Nintendo's GameCube - did not.

"All three consoles are really good," Mr. Hollenshead said by telephone from Id's base in Mesquite, Tex. "But as far as basic capacity, Xbox just wins out in certain areas. It flat-out offers more capability."

That is a crucial distinction, Id and a number of other game developers are beginning to say aloud. Some, like Mark Rein, vice president of Epic Games, say that Xbox is the only console that can serve as an adequate showcase for the artistry and complexity of his company's graphically complex games. A coming game from Epic, Unreal Championship 2, will be played only on Xbox.

"It has so much graphic power," Mr. Rein said, describing what he says is Xbox's superior ability to process data rapidly and display it as movielike game play, a requirement for the fast-moving shooting-and-mayhem titles on which Epic built its reputation.

Such pronouncements are emerging at a critical point in the competition among game consoles. Unlike personal computers, game consoles remain largely unchanged in power and other capabilities until a successor is released, typically at five-year intervals. While none of the three console makers have publicly committed themselves to a date for the arrival of a next generation, there has been speculation that Microsoft could introduce a new Xbox as early as next year, and that Sony may follow with a new PlayStation in 2006. Their fortunes may hinge on the battle for game developers' allegiance.

Sony has prevailed up to now on symbiotic advantages: it sells more consoles because it has many of the most popular games, often exclusively, and developers of those games are attracted by the sheer number of PlayStation users. If Microsoft can woo more developers to Xbox, the balance of power in the next round could change.

"It's clear that the camps are being aligned for the next-generation consoles," said P. J. McNealy, an analyst with American Technology Research in San Francisco. "Whether or not Microsoft is playing for market dominance is another question. I think they would be pleased with a strong second-place showing."

To topple Sony from its No. 1 position any time soon would be a "titanic event, up there with the fishes and loaves on the all-time miracle list," he said.

Mr. McNealy said that recent sales figures indicate that Xbox will outsell PlayStation 2 in North America this month, by 275,000 units to 200,000, versus 100,000 for the GameCube. If so, it would be the first time any rival has surpassed Sony's console sales in North America in 45 months, he said.

That 45-month period roughly corresponds to the current generation of consoles. About 70 million units of PlayStation 2, released in early 2000, had been sold by January of this year. That compares with fewer than 14 million for Xbox, released in late 2001; GameCube, also released in late 2001, lags further.

Part of Sony's advantage, many experts note, has hinged on its ability to produce blockbuster games or lock up exclusives with third-party game developers. A best-seller like Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto: Vice City, a 2002 release for PlayStation 2 and the PC, can sell six million copies at $50 each. (It later became available for Xbox.)

Yet as the consoles approach the end of their cycle, the question is whether PlayStation 2 is beginning to cede some clout. Sony says no.

"PlayStation 2 is the clear leader in this generation, as demonstrated by the profitable business we have created both for ourselves and our partners," Molly Smith, a spokeswoman for Sony Computer Entertainment America, said by e-mail. "As the category driver, our goal is to continue to facilitate innovation during this product cycle while leading the industry toward the next round."

Microsoft and Sony each have fundamental strengths to exploit in the game arena. Sony is principally a hardware maker. Sony Computer Entertainment America's research and development laboratory, for example, has helped developers take full advantage of its console with hardware peripherals like its successful EyeToy for camera-assisted games. And Sony was established in the console marketplace years before Microsoft arrived there.

Microsoft has a core strength in software. The console's very name was derived from a crucial Microsoft program for game developers, Direct X. The unit is "a Direct X box, a hardware manifestation of our software for games," said J. Allard, Microsoft's chief Xbox officer. The central needs of developers - like the ability to render game play at a higher resolution - were a guiding principle in the console's design.

Many developers say that PlayStation 2, meanwhile, is a more difficult console for creating games. Some complain that its software tools are not as intuitive as the Xbox's, especially for developers who have a long history of developing games for PC's.

And in the end, Xbox is clearly the most powerful console among the three. "On the technical specs it is fairly cut and dried," said Michael Goodman, a senior analyst for the Yankee Group. "Who's got the biggest processor? Microsoft. Who's got the highest-end video card? Microsoft. Who's got the most memory and the greatest flexibility with that memory? Microsoft."

Yet Mr. Allard played down Xbox's hardware advantages. Instead, he focused on software - "Software is the key that unlocks hardware, always has been and always will be," he said - and on tools that Microsoft is introducing to help game makers create sophisticated games for Xbox and PC's.

From the start, Mr. Allard said, Xbox was seen as a device that could benefit from software advances Microsoft had developed in the Windows PC world, which included PC gaming. The ease of crossing over between developing games for Xbox and tailoring them for the PC also makes it easier for some developers (like Id, with Doom 3) to produce releases for both.

Mr. Allard said he hoped to make the game-development process for Xbox more efficient with software packages that help developers accomplish graphics and sound tasks without having to build the tools themselves, as many do.

Microsoft unveiled that initiative last month under the rubric XNA at the Game Developers Conference in San Jose, Calif. Some industry analysts expressed skepticism, though, that XNA would mean much to major developers like Id and Epic, which pride themselves on their own tools.

Whatever the software tools, Xbox's superior processing power (with a 733-megahertz chip, versus PlayStation 2's 295-megahertz variety), along with additional memory, are a draw for developers.

Donald Mustard, the director, lead designer and creator of Advent Rising, due in the fall from Majesco Games, has chosen Xbox as its exclusive console.

He said the game, the first in a planned trilogy, would be strikingly cinematic. Its reliance on bump mapping and pixel shaders, a technique that makes virtual surfaces appear reflective, demands a great deal from a console's hardware, something he said that only Xbox can show off.

"We're trying to create our own style for Advent," Mr. Mustard said. "Doom 3 is very much dark, shadows everywhere. We made our game look like a comic book, a graphic novel. But the way we do our texture maps, it won't look like a cartoon."

Similarly, Jack Sorensen, vice president for product development for THQ, a major video game publisher, said its coming Full Spectrum Warrior would first be released for Xbox because its design team determined that the console could do "certain things" that the others could not.

"We could get better color and lighting," he said, explaining why the designers of the military combat game, scheduled for release on Xbox in June and on PC's in the fall, bypassed PlayStation 2. "We have really maximized for the Xbox. That's why our product looks so good."

But Andy McNamara, editor in chief of Game Informer, a monthly magazine that covers the video game industry, noted that for all the concern about console capacity, many gamers are still playing on ordinary television sets.

"I love Xbox," he said. "I love all the things Xbox can bring, but how many people have high-definition televisions?"

Referring to the protagonist in The Chronicles of Riddick: Escape From Butcher Bay, an Xbox game expected soon from Vivendi Universal, he added: "Riddick is going to have a lot of detail. But he's going to spend a lot of time in the dark. With a bad TV image, all those grays are going to turn into nothing but blacks, and all the grays are going to be blacks."
 
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I think it's American studios saying what they've always said, they like PC's, and they like X-Box because it's a PC in a box.

but with nearly all X-box 2 speculation suggesting X-Box 2 will be nothing like a PC, where will this leave it? Will XNA really make up that difference?

For that matter, how do the Japanese creators feel? Sony seems to have more to fear from GC than X-Box. Capcom and Konami early on seemed interested in X-Box, but less so now. Yet Capcom's giving some big titles to GC, and it is speculated MGS : TS may make Konami give GC development some serious thought.

The X-Box has done a masterful job of attracting the PC gamer to consoles, but fans of the Japanese console-style of gaming (which, in my opinion is the stronger of the two) seem to be left out in the cold.

Most notable, though, is that X-Box "rising" seems solely attributable to it being $30 less than PS2, and Ms is selling it at a deep loss at that point. At the same price tag, people have consistently preferred PS2 to X-Box. Do the America FPS-factories really matter much? I wonder.
 

galfordo

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This battle has already been fought, and X-box lost. Even if it outsells the PS2 2 to 1 for the remainder of this console generation, it still won't have sold enough units to break even (not even close, I would suspect). I'm glad Doom 3 is coming to the bawkz, and it's definitely the right console for it to be on, but this isn't going to drastically change the future for the xbox.

Maybe xbox 2 will give the PS 3 a little bit better run for its money in the next round, but I don't see M$ taking Sony's crown. I think they'll probably gain some ground, at best. The Sony hype machine is a formidable opponent, even for a company like M$.

Another troublesome fact is that M$ had to eat losses on every xbox unit, and that was just to get them into the position they're in today - which isn't that bad, but isn't stellar either, especially when compared to Sony's. M$ had better be prepared to eat some more losses on Xbox 2 if they want to have a notable power advantage over the PS 3 - if not, then I suspect it'll be a rocky ride for them.
 

Mushiki

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jethrek said:
The X-Box has done a masterful job of attracting the PC gamer to consoles, but fans of the Japanese console-style of gaming (which, in my opinion is the stronger of the two) seem to be left out in the cold.

Most notable, though, is that X-Box "rising" seems solely attributable to it being $30 less than PS2, and Ms is selling it at a deep loss at that point. At the same price tag, people have consistently preferred PS2 to X-Box. Do the America FPS-factories really matter much? I wonder.

I agree completely.

And regarding the Xbox2, I wish Microsoft this times decides to actually reasearch, design and work on a system, and doesn't make one with off the shelf PC hardware.
 

Crovax

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I agree with pretty much everything that has been said so far in this thread. I just want to point out two problems with the argument being made in the article:

1) They focus on one genre: FPS. Its no secret that the majority of X-Box owners enjoy FPS, which would cause developers of games in the genre to preferentially choose the Box over other consoles. But, as we've seen in previous generations, a single genre can't determine the success or failure of a console. To that end, the article is full of shit.

2) The selection of developers

THQ, a major video game publisher

Now tell me, how many decent games has this particular company published in recent memory??? To be blunt, the article is trying to make its point using developers and publishers that are decidedly not the most influential in the industry. Maybe if they cited representatives from Konami, I might be convinced, but having the support of THQ or Vivendi really doesn't impress me.

Another article written by people that don't really know the industry.
 

Mushiki

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THQ... let's see... hmmm... they made a Ranma Nibun no Ichi game on SFC... all I remember is that.
 

NeogenX

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I have to admit, M$ is getting smarter, as far their advertising and exposure are concerned. Xbox is clearly the most powerful of the 3 current units, even though they "lost" to PS2; I feel they are laying some solid groundwork towards their new machine. Xbox Live has already set the standard for online console games, neither Sony nor Nintendo seem to realize this. Now they're gonna end the current hardware generation by releasing the biggest, baddest, most graphics intensive games...while Nintendo and Sony just come along for the ride. It should be enough to convince the "average American gamer" to make the switch to XB2. If PS3 isn't backwards compatible ( I honestly don't know either way, I'm not too up to date on next gen specs), I see no reason why M$ wouldn't win the next gen war (stateside).
 

Kunai

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MS really needs to focus on appeasing the Japanese crowd. I think they have done a good job making the XBox appealing and enjoyable in the US, but for some reason they are not putting that same sort of effort overseas. The size of the console and lack of RPGs are glaring. I guess broadband is still not as prominent over there either (at least compared to US), so it's hard to push the Live service. It's also difficult for MS to convince 3rd parties to develop for their system, when the userbase of PS2 is so much larger in all territories.

I think the best MS can do for the next console wars is to continue to focus on US gamers, since it seems that Sony's stranglehold on Japan may prove too difficult to loosen up. It would take a lot of firepower to take out Sony in it's homeland, but hey... people thought Nintendo was invincible back in the day, too.
 

Buro Destruct

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Honestly now, everybody's buying Eckbockses for the romz, not exclusive games.
 

jeff bogard

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In the last console war the N64 was winning, then lost towards the end. And I think it lost because the PSX had more memory, the N64 was hard to develop, and the PSX games were cheaper.

Now I think the trend is almost the same (correct me if I'm wrong, i'm not sure on this). Xbox was more xpensive than the ps2 (not by much) and now they are about the same price. MS will try to make their console more affordable (a good step, if they seek only console sales) by the end of the year. Xbox games are cheaper (at least in my point of view, again I might be wrong, and please correct me) I'm basing off from the GG, Chaos, and SNKP games. If other developers will release games at these prices. Chances are Xbox might close the race. Maybe enought to get enought attention to be among the most awaited consoles for the next gen.

However, we can't deny it. We in America have too many MS haters, too many anime freaks, and people who are just loyal to nintendo.

I think about it like the presidential campaign, sure a lot of people hate bush, but with so much hate there are other nominess, that if the goal is to take bush out of office, maybe they won't reach their goal, simply because the more the candidates the more their splitting the opposing vote.

PS2 here is the main one, and if Nintendo and MS don't either join forces or combine alternatives, chances are PS3 might come out a winner.

I for one support microsoft now, for several reason.

1. I hate the company and knowing they are losing money by buying one, I'm waiting for the lowest price drop, to make the loss even worst.

2. SNKP games.

3. I hate the PS controller, and seeing how PS3 might have the same design, I wont' support it again.



Now, Nintendo went for the exclusive strategy, which works at some level. However, not everyone likes their controller. Plus, a lot people (like me) just don't like to admit, hey I have a Nintendo console.

just my 2 cents.
 

X

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jeff bogard said:
In the last console war the N64 was winning, then lost towards the end. And I think it lost because the PSX had more memory, the N64 was hard to develop, and the PSX games were cheaper.
.


64 was never winning.
 

galfordo

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I don't really remember the N64 winning either. Could you provide a source, please? Anyway, maybe the N64 was outselling the PS at some point in time, but I really don't think it ever overtook it in sales #'s.
 

FeelGood

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After seeing how much goodness the box offers in terms of roms, I'm surprised tha tJapanese gamers haven't flocked to it. I mean, all the Cave shooters, CPS2, and Neo games should make a world of difference.

I have an x-box with no x-box games. lol...
 

td741

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I'm thinking of getting an Xbox to use as a MythTV front end.... ;)

Anyway, even if the XBox 2 ends up being this weird 3 G5 CPU based system. As long as the API stays the same, the programmers wouldn't really need to care.

I figure that they already have to compile their software for the xbox and not (say) take the PC executables and simply plop them in. So as long as the XBox' version of DirectX isn't radically different then the ones used by the PC, they probably won't care what's under the hood (as long as it has enough processing power).

Drastically different hardware (if the software API stays in tact) would only be a problem if you're dealing with backwards compatibility.
 
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slerch666

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At risk of reposting what someone else said (I didn't feel like finishing the article and couldn't be bothered to read the longer posts, so sorry for stepping on toes),

Gee, port a PC game to the PC console. Real difficult decision. Especially when the video chipset in the PC console is one of the basic video chipsets you are supporting with your game. Yeah, real difficult decision.

Doom 3 PC > Doom 3 X-box. I know what version I'm buying.
 
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