Do you think a game market crash is likely?

I was just pondering the possibility of another video game market crash like in the 1980's. The conditions are just about right it seems for this to happen again. I sift through the boxes at work and find great games getting ready for the half off bin.
I just plucked SVC Chaos out of the bin for $15.00 brand new for Xbox. I have many more great games that I recently got at drastic reductions and some are only a few months old. I can hit the used game store in the area and pick up great games for $2.00. I got Metal Slug 3 brand new Xbox for $13.00 locally.

I mean games are released nowadays by the load like they were in the 1980's.
Many of these games suck but alot of them are also great. I don't think there is one person in the world that has played and beat all the great games out now.
I literally have a stack in my room for Gamecube of great games that I have not even opened yet. I snapped these games before the customers at deep price cuts. One day I got 5 good quality games for $40.00 not even a year old yet.

It's not even really viable to upgrade to the new systems yet because so many games exist that still need played. I usually upgrade when there are no good games left to play on a system.

It can't be very profitable to the industry when the game released sells for $15.00.
I also don't think the next round of systems is going to be a leap like we saw with the Playstation 1 to 2 and so on. I don't even think the Xbox was being pushed to it's limits when they released the 360.

The Neo is the only game system ever to retain it's collectibility and over all resale value even after it's demise. The games still exist on other systems which is pretty darn good.

I just think the market will start to demand quality over quantity again. Nintendo although losing the system war still seems to maintain this attitude. Those Mario games never hit the bargain bin for the gamecube.

This issue was recently raised in another post.

The Chronicles or Riddick video game on Xbox grossed more than the film. And I don't think the film did too badly in the box offices. TV networks now understand that your average 20+ year old is playing games instead of watching prime time TV shows.

The gaming industry is too big and there is too much money flowing now. Back in the 80's video games were a sub section of the toy market and very few took it seriously. Not these days.

I took into account increased sales of video games in todays society. The fact of the matter is in the U.S. Video Games are still percieved by many as a childs toy.
Almost all adults who have children regard this as a toy and complain about content of games. This causes companies to kill content adults want and so on.
The market could clearly dry up if mediocre games get released by the wads look at music and movies as an example. I'm seeing many variables in customers attitudes and buying trends that make me wonder.

I'd look for a systemic economic collapse to rock the globe before I'd bank on a gaming industry implosion. The masses need their digital circuses, after all.

We all love good eye candy...especially the youths...the industry isn't drying up. As long as new systems keep popping out and the advertising reps don't fall asleep, all will be well.

Hard to imagine any industry that grosses billions each year abruptly ending. Until something else comes along (whatever that is) and takes kids and enthusiast attention way it will remain an ever increasing market.


-Ford

Ford pretty much summed it up. The industry is made up of a kids market, but an equally, perhaps today an even more important adult market.

Its a multi-billion dollar industry. Irrespective of consumer trends. It is a massive market.

As far as video games go yes most are decreasing in value at an astouding rate, but that's because the media that they are being made CDs and DVDs as well as the compression ratio, double layer capacity that the media can hold is improving. What does this mean? well that it is becoming cheaper to make video games and the result is months after they have been released the prices are cut in half if not more. The prices have also affected some games on older consoles like the SNES' RPGs take for example Chrono Trigger just the game alone costed 75 bucks at funcoland aka Gamestop back in 1998 but ever since the updated release on the psone, you'll be lucky if it sold for 30 bucks just for the game. A packaged Chrono Trigger with box and manual is worth alot more than 30 bucks, I know that. Another example is the new Megaman X complilation coming out in January for the Gamecube, I think this will affect the price values for the SNES' megaman Xs at least the games that are loose.

re

I think when the next gen consoles are all out, the industry will flatten out and values of older games for the aes, nes, snes sega cd, saturn ect will plummet as old games are ported for the new consoles

This ain't 1984, things are completely different.

I'd say a game crash could only possibly happen if people stopped buying games once they got crappy enough. Which is to say, never at this point. Until some sort of entertainment come into the mainstream that causes everyone to abandon them forever, video games will continue to sell.

ViewtifulZFO said:

I'd say a game crash could only possibly happen if people stopped buying games once they got crappy enough. Which is to say, never at this point. Until some sort of entertainment come into the mainstream that causes everyone to abandon them forever, video games will continue to sell.

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I agree. The industry is too organized and large to just totally crash. There could be a downturn in the future. However, I doubt the industry would even totally go under.

Neo Ash said:

I agree. The industry is too organized and large to just totally crash. There could be a downturn in the future. However, I doubt the industry would even totally go under.

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Agreed. But I think it's more going to consolidate rather than flat out. Square Enix is a great example of this. I'm waiting for the day Konami or Namco swallows up Jaleco.

Do you believe the gaming market needs a crash? What would be the pros/cons, and possible outcomes of such an event?

I dont believe the older systems prcies will fall(snes, saturn, jaguar etc) as I feel they've already had their price plunge, I mean, you can buy a decent saturn game in great condition for as little as £5 if not lower, so I just dont see how they could go any lower?

Also, its mainly collectors that want the "original" older titles, not ports, so they will help keep the past systems prices pretty much as they are I think - I mean, if I want to play Shinobi, Ill buy the original game and play it on the original system as you can pick both up for next to nothing nowadays.

Mushiki said:

This ain't 1984, things are completely different.

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Agreed beside today market is to healthy for that.

Much as i wish for it to happen it won't

subzero said:

I just plucked SVC Chaos out of the bin for $15.00 brand new for Xbox. I got Metal Slug 3 brand new Xbox for $13.00 locally.

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How many average people can you honestly say would consider these to be great games? I took my son to GAME for a cheap title the other day, they had MS3 for £10 and I thought to myself that it was the best game in the shop as well as being one of the cheapest. When I got to the counter the guy asked me "why exactly are you buying that?" and looked down on me as though he was some kind of super games fan and I didn't know what I was on about. It was clear he was from the Playstation generation and in no way could understand why I wanted it.

So many games get released nowadays that certain ones you find to be great will end up heavily discounted as the majority wouldn't be able to tell the difference between SVC and SF2 from 15 years ago.

Gaming is a hugely mainstream hobby nowadays, there are no two ways about it. There will not be another gaming crash. We just have to deal with 99% of releases being lame nowadays.

Personally I have become an "anti-gamer", I wish I could just give up gaming entirely. I hate the fact that I have to share something, which was so important and great to me at one stage of my life, with so many people who really have no idea about what good gaming actually is as they are blinded by huge corporations churning out total rubbish, but they can't see it.
As a result of this the kind of games I like are very few and far between nowadays.

A month after release in the UK, SvC Chaos was £6.97 on amazon. ($12?) oddly it's gone back up now.... fingers crossed it'll be in their after xmas sale

On a seperate note, I think you should read more about the original market crash in the eighties. The situation was nothing like it is today.

DolphinLord said:

I'd look for a systemic economic collapse to rock the globe before I'd bank on a gaming industry implosion.

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very good point

DolphinLord said:

I'd look for a systemic economic collapse to rock the globe before I'd bank on a gaming industry implosion. The masses need their digital circuses, after all.

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wow... I haven't seen dolphinlord around for awhile

well.... I don't think there will be a crash..... but like JC Penney, Kmart, and other major chains that shrunk a few years back, you will see this happening to Eb Games, Game Crazy, and other major chains.

You are going to see many small chain stores go out as well.... and what is going to happen is there will be a clearing out of those that cannot survive. Cutthroat markets cannot last for too long.... people will just price themselves out. Ebay has done a hell of a job pushing this on..... I don't see how some people get their games so cheap on there. I know people like to save money, but when I have a shop I like to shop at, I will pay more to give them the business to make sure they are getting the support....

But anyway, back to the topic at hand.... we've had a handful of developers close in the last 2 years as well.... including Acclaim, Working Designs (just closed), and some others. ON TOP OF THAT, there are now 2 major handhelds competing, along with 3 major systems, and every game comes out seems to hit on EVERY system (5 of the same game). Developers don't see that they will be selling less with this strategy because people today own more than 1 system.

I do see a problem in the next few years though.... I am not sure about a crash, but you are going to see a more widespread weakening.

†B†V†

This is according to me and a friend.. If the Revolution doesnt stabilize the gaming industry then YES.

I read everyones posts and there are some very valid points on this subject. I just think that games are being devalued by the mega corporation {Sony and M$}
When I was in my teenage years I wanted to make games but quickly backed off that after the PS 1. Nintendo helped create Sony Playstation rule now even they can't seem to keep up with them. The classics can be reproduced but the sentimental value can never be duplicated. It's not the same playing the original Donkey Kong on a new system. Some of these new kids playing would'nt know a good game if it slapped them in the face.

I had some little twat brag about his score on the Xbox remake of SF II in that collection. I had to come out of SF II retirement and beat his ass arcade style.

http://www.kotaku.com/gaming/diec-2005/diec-ataris-founder-slams-sony-praises-nintendo-140629.php

Grand Dad knows best.

"In 1982, he tells us, there were 44 million gamers. Today, there are 18 million."

yeah i think that games and the internet are both bound to be fads. same goes for television also.

I can see what he is saying in the article but those numbers are obsurd to me. He has to talking about arcade because the home console market is much larger than 14 million. I would agree with his stance on gaming for some to be to involved in some aspects. When I get up in the morning before school all I want to play is something simple and fast. When I have time to kill then I want something involved but not always. I agree with his stance on females being left out of games. Customers ask for games geared toward girls all the time but there are not many. Usually Nintendo picks up that bill when I need to make a sale like that.

I would love to see more "arcade" style games being developed for home consoles. I myself enjoy fast action with not alot of reading on my part when I game. I read books and all at school for 6 hours a day. There is something rewarding about playing Pac Man just to top scores.

I'm not a fan of the RPG game and never have been sorry. Alot of people like these and that is great.

The fact of the matter I am still pissed that Nintendo jacked Sony many years ago and thats how we got the PSX. We lost Sega in the process which was not a bad company. Bill Gates had to throw his wallet in after he saw Sony cleaning up now we have these machines that are more computer than game machine. Bill needs to worry about making an OS that is worth the price he asks. The really strange part is some of these machines are using Apple processors even though made by IBM.